Organizational Behavior Area Research Seminar Series: Santiago Campero
Santiago Campero
University of Toronto
Crime Waves and the Labor Market: Evidence from Mexico
Date: Friday November 14, 2025
Time:10:30 AM -12:00 PM
Location: Armstrong 155A
All are cordially invited to attend.
Abstract:
While extensive research links labor market conditions to crime, much less is known about the reverse causal channel—how sudden increases in violence reshape local labor markets. I study Culiacán, Mexico, which experienced a sharp rise in violent crime in 2024 after the arrest of a major organized-crime leader triggered a turf war among local factions. Using city-level employment data and a synthetic control design, I estimate how this crime wave affected local employment relative to comparable Mexican cities. The surge in violence led to a significant decline in male employment. Further analyses show that the crime wave increased job-search activity, consistent with heightened search effort in the face of worsening local labor-market conditions. It also generated a spike in temporary separations from work. However, despite concerns about the erosion of social capital in higher crime communities, I find no evidence of a short-term decline in job-finding through social networks.
