Guillaume Roussellet awarded 2019 FRQSC New Academics Grant

Congratulations to Guillaume Roussellet, Assistant Professor in Finance, awarded 2019 FRQSC New Academics Grant (Soutien à la recherche pour la relève professorale) “Facteurs de volatilité et valorisation du VIX”

Cross-Listings and the Dynamics between Credit and Equity Returns

Authors: Patrick Augustin, Feng Jiao, Sergei Sarkissian, and Michael J. Schill

Publication: The Review of Financial Studies, Forthcoming

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Professor Patrick Augustin wins 2018 Arthur Warga Award for Best Paper in Fixed Income

Assistant Professor in Finance, Patrick Augustin, recently received the 2018 Arthur Warga Award for Best Paper in Fixed Income at the Society for Financial Studies (SFS) Calvalcade North America 2018 with co-authors Mikhail Chernov and Dongho Song.

Informed Options Trading Prior to Takeover Announcements: Insider Trading?

Authors: Patrick Augustin, Menachem Brenner, Marti G. Subrahmanyam

Publication: Management Science, May 21, 2019

Abstract:

We quantify the pervasiveness of informed trading activity in target companies' equity options before the announcements of 1,859 U.S. takeovers between 1996 and 2012. About 25% of all takeovers have positive abnormal volumes, which are greater for short-dated out-of-the-money calls, consistent with bullish directional trading before the announcement. Over half of this abnormal activity is unlikely due to speculation, news and rumors, trading by corporate insiders, leakage in the stock market, deal predictability, or beneficial ownership filings by activist investors. We also examine the characteristics of option trades litigated by the SEC for alleged illegal insider trading. While the characteristics of such trades closely resemble the patterns of abnormal option volume in the U.S. takeover sample, we find that the SEC litigates only about 8% of all deals in it.

A Large-Scale Approach for Evaluating Asset Pricing Models

Author: Laurent Barras

Publication: Journal of Financial Economics, Forthcoming

Abstract:

Recent studies show that the standard test portfolios do not contain sufficient information to discriminate between asset pricing models. To address this issue, we develop a large-scale approach that expands the cross-section to several thousand portfolios. Our novel approach is simple, widely applicable, and allows for formal evaluation/comparison tests. Its benefits are confirmed in empirical tests of CAPM- and characteristic-based models. While these models are all misspecified, we uncover striking performance differences between them. In particular, the human capital and conditional CAPMs largely outperform the CAPM which suggests that labor income and time-varying recession risks are primary concerns for investors.

The Term Structure of CDS Spreads and Sovereign Credit Risk

Author: Patrick Augustin

Publication: Journal of Monetary Economics, Forthcoming

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Ruslan Goyenko paper "Illiquidity Premia in Equity Option Markets" selected Editor's Choice in Review of Financial Studies

Professor Ruslan Goyenko's paper "Illiquidity Premia in Equity Option Markets" with Peter Christoffersen, Kris Jacobs and Mehdi Karoui was selected as Editor's Choice article in the March 2018 issue of Review of Financial Studies.

Asset Pricing with Countercyclical Household Consumption Risk

Authors: George M. Constantinides and Anisha Ghosh

Publication: Journal of Finance, Vol. 72, No. 1, February 2017

Abstract:

We show that shocks to household consumption growth are negatively skewed, persistent, countercyclical, and drive asset prices. We construct a parsimonious model where heterogeneous households have recursive preferences. A single state variable drives the conditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth. The estimated model fits well the unconditional cross-sectional moments of household consumption growth and the moments of the risk-free rate, equity premium, price-dividend ratio, and aggregate dividend and consumption growth. The model-implied risk-free rate and price-dividend ratio are procyclical, while the market return has countercyclical mean and variance. Finally, household consumption risk explains the cross section of excess returns.

Read article: Journal of Finance

What Is the Consumption-CAPM Missing? An Information-Theoretic Framework for the Analysis of Asset Pricing Models

Authors: Anisha Ghosh, Christian Julliard, Alex P. Taylor

Publication: The Review of Financial Studies, Volume 30, No. 2, February 2017

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We consider asset pricing models in which the SDF can be factorized into an observable component and a potentially unobservable one. Using a relative entropy minimization approach, we nonparametrically estimate the SDF and its components. Empirically, we find the SDF has a business-cycle pattern and significant correlations with market crashes and the Fama-French factors. Moreover, we derive novel bounds for the SDF that are tighter and have higher information content than existing ones. We show that commonly used consumption-based SDFs correlate poorly with the estimated one, require high risk aversion to satisfy the bounds and understate market crash risk.

Read article: The Review of Financial Studies

Sovereign to Corporate Risk Spillovers

Authors: Patrick Augustin, Hamid Boustanifar, Johannes Breckenfelder and Jan Schinitzler

Publication: Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Forthcoming

Abstract:

Market and Regional Segmentation and Risk Premia in the First Era of Financial Globalization

Authors: David Chambers, Sergei Sarkissian and Michael J. Schill

Publication: Review of Financial Studies, Forthcoming

Abstract:

We study market segmentation effects using data on U.S. railroads that list their bonds in New York and London between 1873 and 1913. This sample provides a unique setting for such analysis because of the precision offered by bond yields in cost of capital estimation, the geography-specific nature of railroad assets, and ongoing substantial technological change. We document a significant reduction in market segmentation over time. Whilst New York bond yields exceeded those in London in the 1870s, this premium disappeared by the early 1900s. However, the segmentation premium persisted in the more remote regions of the United States.

Read full article: Review of Financial Studies

Two-Sided Reputation in Certification Markets

Authors: Matthieu Bouvard and Raphaël Levy

Publication: Management Science, Forthcoming

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In a market where sellers solicit certification to overcome asymmetric information, we show that the profit of a monopolistic certifier can be hump-shaped in its reputation for accuracy: a higher accuracy attracts high-quality sellers but sometimes repels low-quality sellers. As a consequence, reputational concerns may induce the certifier to reduce information quality, thus depressing welfare. The entry of a second certifier impacts reputational incentives: when sellers only solicit one certifier, competition plays a disciplining role and the region where reputation is bad shrinks. Conversely, this region may expand when sellers hold multiple certifications.

Read full article: Management Science

Illiquidity Premia in the Equity Options Market

Authors: Peter Christoffersen, Ruslan Goyenko, Kris Jacobs, Mehdi Karoui

Publication: Review of Financial Studies, Vol. 31, No. 3, March 2018

Abstract:

Standard option valuation models leave no room for option illiquidity premia. Yet we find the risk-adjusted return spread for illiquid over liquid equity options is 3:4% per day for at-the-money calls and 2:5% for at-the-money puts. These premia are computed using option illiquidity measures constructed from intraday effective spreads for a large panel of U.S. equities, and they are robust to different empirical implementations. Our findings are consistent with evidence that market makers in the equity options market hold large and risky net long positions, and positive illiquidity premia compensate them for the risks and costs of these positions.

Read full article: Review of Financial Studies