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"Hedge Fund Return Predictability Under the Magnifying Glass," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

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Published: 17 Jan 2014

Authors: Avramov, Doron; Barras, Laurent; Kosowski, Robert

Publication: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, August 2013

Abstract: 

This paper develops a unified approach to comprehensively analyze individual hedge fund return predictability, both in- and out-of-sample. In-sample, we find that variation in hedge fund performance across changing market conditions is widespread and economically significant. The predictability pattern is consistent with economic rationale, and largely reflects differences in key hedge fund characteristics, such as leverage or capacity constraints. Out-of-sample, we show that a simple strategy that combines the funds' return forecasts obtained from individual predictors delivers superior performance. We exploit this simplicity to highlight the drivers of this performance, and find that in- and out-of-sample predictability are closely related. Copyright © Michael G. Foster School of Business, University of Washington 2013.

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