As is typical in many language courses, we recently started the weather unit in my Czech class. Aside from learning weather-related vocabulary, my instructor – who is always privy to a fun fact – taught us that in Czech, TV weather reporters are called rosnička. This name does not translate to meteorologist, or weather person, but instead to frog.
There is a reason for this nickname. The story goes that, in the past, frogs were used to predict the weather, like the weather app on our phone. To make a forecast, all one would have to do is put a frog in a jar containing a tiny ladder and filled up halfway with water. The myth goes that if the frog stays low in the water, submerged, it senses that bad weather is coming. In the case of favorable weather conditions, the frog climbs the ladder, emerging from the water. The higher the frog is on the ladder, the better the weather.
But how did we get here? Long before frogs came onto the scene, other various forms of weather prediction methods were cycled through. We can find early records of weather predictions from around 650 BC in Babylonia. These observations were based upon the appearance of clouds. 300 years later, Aristotle offered his insight and intellect. In his text, Meterologica, he pulled together the most modern weather-related theories of his time, offering thoughts on the formation of clouds, rain, thunder, and wind. Despite being riddled with errors, this text was used as the weather-encyclopedia for nearly 2,000 years until the 17th century. It was during the Renaissance with the invention of reliable scientific instruments such as the barometer, thermometer, and rain gauge among others that caused the departure from Aristotle’s (and other ancient philosophers’) observations and claims as fact.
In addition to these more advanced measuring instruments, increased globalization also aided the weather-predicting effort. With the invention of the electric telegraph in 1835, there was a major paradigm shift in the world of weather forecasting. Telegraphic networks allowed for weather observations to be shared more quickly and widely. With this ample data, compilers were able to create map visualizations of weather and wind patterns, as well as compile data on storm systems.
Then came numerical weather prediction. Formulated by Norway’s own Vilhelm Bjerknes in 1904 and developed by English scientist, Lewis Fry Richardson, this new way to predict weather was done so by solving mathematical equations. However, this new era did not come without its qualms. Numerical weather prediction had a turbulent start. Despite Richardson making wildly inaccurate weather predictions, his work provided the foundation of modern weather prediction and reporting. Publishing a book containing his results in 1922, Richardson envisioned a weather-predicting scheme akin to a human computer, where each person would be responsible for a small part of an equation, and once solved, the result would be passed to the next person to start solving. Unfortunately (or possibly fortunately), in order to maintain proper accurate weather reporting, 64,000 people would be required. As you can imagine, this never came into fruition.
All hope was not lost. Hungarian American mathematician, John von Neumann in his extended query into the various applications of computers, investigated their role in weather prediction. Putting together a research team led by fellow American, Jule Charney, they were able to reconcile the issues with Richardson’s calculations by inputting them into these supercomputers and revising the Englishman’s original equations. By 1950, this group was able to make accurate, 24-hour weather predictions across North America. Today, weather forecasting relies on data from far more instruments, such as satellites which collect global images from space, land surface instruments which measure weather conditions on the ground, marine sensors to capture data from the ocean, and radars to collect rainfall data.
What about our little rosničky? It turns out their usage for weather prediction was not totally random. Despite not really being able to predict weather, frogs can react to very subtle environmental changes in response to weather events. In fact, frogs are not the only ones who are able to do so. Famously, Groundhog Day, is a day dedicated to this very phenomenon. Additionally, migratory birds are known to decrease their flight altitude due to changing air pressure when a storm is approaching. While observing animal behavior can be an interesting way to track weather patterns, it is best to leave the weather forecasting to the experts with the computers.
Eva Kellner is a recent graduate from the Faculty of Arts and Science, with a major in Environment. Her research interests include urban green spaces, urban agriculture, and outdoor community spaces - all as promoters of climate resilience among city-dwellers.
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