Event

MARRETT LECTURE: Oliver Kaplan, “Superstitions and Civilian Displacement: Evidence from the Colombian Conflict”

Friday, April 8, 2022 12:00to13:30
Leacock Building Room 429, 855 rue Sherbrooke Ouest, Montreal, QC, H3A 2T7, CA

You are all invited to the Annual Marrett Lecture on Political Violence and Terrorism, which is funded by the John and Eileen Marrett Memorial Fund:

Superstitions and Civilian Displacement: Evidence from the Colombian Conflict”

Oliver Kaplan, University of Denver
Friday, April 8, 2022
12:00 – 1:30 pm
Leacock 429

Co-sponsored by the Centre for International Peace and Security Studies

Abstract:
Violence during armed conflict has been explained using a variety of theories, including rationality, organizational dynamics, and personal and collective grievances. These explanations overlook the significance of what some might term “irrational” belief systems that are found in different countries among both combatants and the general population. Conflict-related religious and superstitious beliefs can shape civilians’ faith, resolve, optimism, social ties, and therefore levels of risk-acceptance and decisions to displace from their communities. This study explores new survey and interview data from Colombia and shows that a substantial share of the conflict-affected population holds a variety of conflict-related superstitious beliefs. It analyzes the determinants of these beliefs and assess their impacts on three key displacement-related outcomes: How likely are individuals to displace if their town is attacked; how able they are to cope with the difficulties of daily life in conflict zones (resilience); and whether they would recommend that displaced relatives return home. The paper uses regression analysis, statistical matching techniques, and interview and focus group accounts to assess the contributions of conflict-related superstitions and religious beliefs and practices to these outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion of implications for the field of conflict studies, as the findings suggest existing theories of conflict and violence may be based on incomplete foundations and inaccurate models of decision-making.

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