Les prédictions économiques prospèrent sur des modèles qui ne fonctionnent pas


The permanent forecasting market and its fallout 

A piece in Contrepoints takes the whole practise of regular GDP forecasting to task for being based on flawed economic models, referencing Desautels Professor Reuven Brenner’s article in the inaugural issue of American Affairs, in which he calls for the abandonment of macroeconomics in favour of a more accountability-based model. Greater accountability would result in maximized potential and fewer squandered resources.

What can hardly be argued is that the forecasts made at the end of 2007 did a terrible job of predicting the 2008 recession, though a careful parsing of banking and housing practises leading up to it would have clearly shown what was really happening.

Read full article in French: Contrepoints, March 31, 2017