BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//132.216.98.100//NONSGML kigkonsult.se iCalcreator 2.20.4// BEGIN:VEVENT UID:20260922T022727EDT-4250AX862K@132.216.98.100 DTSTAMP:20260922T062727Z DESCRIPTION: \n\nStudent Seminar Series\n\nDepartment of Atmospheric & Ocea nic Sciences\n\npresents\n\na talk by\n\nPei-Ning Feng\n PhD student\n\nFor ecast skill of the NAO in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models\n \nAs the dominant mode of climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere\, the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) has important influence on the weath er and climate. Making useful subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) forecasts of t he NAO and understanding its sources of skill is of great interest. In thi s study\, the prediction skill of the NAO for 10 S2S models is assessed. F or all the S2S models\, the NAO prediction skill is up to about 13-17 days when the correlation between the forecast and observation drops to 0.5. T he models with a higher vertical resolution and better-resolved stratosphe re (high top) generally have better skills than those with a lower vertica l resolution (low top).\n\nTo understand the possible sources of predictio n skill of the NAO\, the reforecasts started from different initial condit ions are compared. We select cases according to phases of the quasi-bienni al oscillation (QBO)\, phases of the NAO\, and the properties of the Madde n-Julian Oscillation (MJO) in the initial condition. When the initial cond itions are associated with the negative phase of the NAO or an active MJO event\, the prediction skill is generally better in the S2S models.\n\nWed nesday Nov 20/ 2.30 PM/ Room 934 Burnside Hall\n\n \n\n \n\n \n DTSTART:20191120T193000Z DTEND:20191120T203000Z LOCATION:Room 934\, Burnside Hall\, CA\, QC\, Montreal\, H3A 0B9\, 805 rue Sherbrooke Ouest SUMMARY:Forecast skill of the NAO in the Subseasonal-to-Seasonal Prediction Models URL:https://www.mcgill.ca/meteo/channels/event/forecast-skill-nao-subseason al-seasonal-prediction-models-302663 END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR