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UID:20260921T094539EDT-7541sRErVb@132.216.98.100
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DESCRIPTION:Léo Belzile\, PhD\n\nAssistant Professor | Department of Decisi
 on Sciences | HEC Montréal\n\nWhere: In-person | 2001 McGill College\, Roo
 m 1203 | Zoom\n\nAbstract\n\nThere is sustained and widespread interest in
  understanding the limit\, if there is any\, to the human lifespan. Mathem
 atically\, the question amounts to determining whether the endpoint of the
  underlying lifetime distribution is finite. Recent analyses of data on th
 e oldest human lifetimes have led to competing claims about survival and t
 o some controversy\, due in part to incorrect statistical analysis. We pro
 vide a critical assessment of some earlier work and illustrate the ideas t
 hrough reanalysis of semi-supercentenarian lifetime data\, focusing on dat
 a quality and sampling schemes\, choice of suitable statistical models and
  adequate extrapolation schemes. Using a blend of survival analysis and ex
 treme value theory\, we highlight some of the conclusions that can be reas
 onably reached based on the limited records: although the rate of mortalit
 y stabilize around 109 years or so\, the hazard is very high with a nearly
  50% probability of dying in any given year. Our analysis suggests that a 
 limit to human lifespan would be much beyond the range of the records and 
 there is reasonable power to detect a limit below 130 years.\n\nSpeaker Bi
 o\n\nhttps://lbelzile.bitbucket.io/ \n\n \n\n \n
DTSTART:20230215T203000Z
DTEND:20230215T213000Z
SUMMARY:Is there a limit to human longevity?
URL:https://www.mcgill.ca/epi-biostat-occh/channels/event/there-limit-human
 -longevity-345518
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