Quick Links

Real Economic Shocks and Sovereign Credit Risk

Published: 28 May 2014

Authors: Augustin, Patrick; Tedongap, Romeo

Publication: Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis

Abstract: 

We provide new empirical evidence that U.S. expected growth and consumption volatility are closely related to the strong co-movement in sovereign spreads. We rationalize these findings in an equilibrium model with recursive utility for CDS spreads. The framework nests a reduced-form default process with country-specific sensitivity to expected growth and macroeconomic uncertainty. Exploiting the high-frequency information in the CDS term structure across 38 countries, we estimate the model and find parameters consistent with preference for early resolution of uncertainty. Our results confirm the existence of time-varying risk premia in sovereign spreads as compensation for exposure to common U.S. macroeconomic risk.

Category:
Source Site: /desautels

Connect with the Desautels Faculty of Management

Desautels Faculty of Management at McGill on FacebookDesautels Faculty of Management at McGill on TwitterFollow the Desautels Faculty of Management University page on LinkedInDesautels Faculty of Management at McGill, BCom Program on LinkedInDesautels Faculty of Management at McGill, MBA Program on LinkedInDesautels Faculty of Management at McGill on YouTubeDesautels Faculty of Management at McGill on Facebook

Research at the Desautels Faculty of Management

Accounting at Desautels Faculty of ManagementFinance at Desautels Faculty of ManagementInformation Systems at Desautels Faculty of ManagementMarketing at Desautels Faculty of ManagementOperations Management at Desautels Faculty of ManagementOrganizational Behaviour at Desautels Faculty of ManagementStrategy and Organization at Desautels Faculty of ManagementHealth Care at Desautels Faculty of Management