"Mutual Fund's R2 as Predictor of Performance," Review of Financial Studies

Authors: Amihud, Yakov; Goyenko, Ruslan Y.

Publication: Review of Financial Studies, March 2013

Abstract:

We propose that fund performance can be predicted by its R², obtained from a regression of its returns on a multifactor benchmark model. Lower R² indicates greater selectivity, and it significantly predicts better performance. Stock funds sorted into lowest-quintile lagged R ² and highest-quintile lagged alpha produce significant annual alpha of 3.8%. Across funds, R² is positively associated with fund size and negatively associated with its expenses and manager's tenure. © 2013 The Author 2013. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of The Society for Financial Studies. All rights reserved.