Correcting for Misspecification in Parameter Dynamics to Improve Forecast Accuracy with Adaptively Estimated Models
Authors: Ceren Kolsarici and Demetrios Vakratsas
Publication: Management Science
Chaz Desousa is a young Montreal entrepreneur who already co-owns a restaurant and a food truck. But when he had the idea for his latest venture, a vintage-style laundromat with oversized washers and dryers, vending machines dispensing funky socks, and sofas for lounging, he went looking for a roommate.
PhD, Marketing, University of Texas, Dallas, USA
MSc, Statistics, University of Texas, Dallas, USA
BSc, Mathematics, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, Greece
Bronfman Building, [Map]
1001 rue Sherbrooke Ouest
Dr. Demetrios Vakratsas joined McGill's Faculty of Management in 2000. Prior to joining McGill, he taught and participated in research projects at The University of Texas at Dallas, London Business School, and University of Thessaloniki (Greece). His research focuses on issues of consumer response to firms' promotional and advertising strategies, strategic market entry decisions made by firms, marketing of financial services and internet marketing. His research has appeared in the Journal of Marketing, Journal of Consumer Marketing, and Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis. He has developed and taught courses on the subjects of Marketing Communications, Business to-Business Marketing, New Product Development, Marketing Management, and International Marketing
Dr. Vakratsas has provided consulting services for Nortel Networks (Dallas), Institute of Practitioners in Advertising (IPA-London), TBWA (London), and the Executive Board of the University of Thessaloniki on advertising strategy and product design issues.
Forthcoming article in a special issue of Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry on Closing the Gap betwen Academic and Practice - "Advertising Response Models with Managerial Impact: An Agenda for the Future" (includes a commentary by Tim Ambler and a rejoinder)
Papers in Peer-Reviewed Journals
Krishnan, Trichy, P.B. Seetharaman and Demetrios Vakratsas, “The Multiple Roles of Interpersonal Communication in New Product Growth,” International Journal of Research in Marketing, 29(3).
Kolsarici, Ceren and Demetrios Vakratsas (2010), “Category- Versus Brand-Level Advertising Messages in a Highly Regulated Environment,” Journal of Marketing Research, XLVII (December).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Zhenfeng Ma (2009), “Firm Adaptiveness and Performance Heterogeneity: The Case of Sales-Advertising Dynamics in an Evolving Product Market,” Journal of Evolutionary Economics, 19(1).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Ceren Kolsarici (2008), “A Dual-Market Diffusion Model for a New Prescription Pharmaceutical,” International Journal of Research in Marketing, 25(4).
Vakratsas, Demetrios (2008), “The Effects of Advertising, Prices and Distribution on Market Share Volatility,” European Journal of Operational Research, 187 (1).
Theoharakis, Vasilis, Demetrios Vakratsas and Veronica Wong (2007), “The Role of Information in the Diffusion of Competing Technological Standards,” Research Policy 36(5).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Zhenfeng Ma (2005), “A Look at the Long-run Effectiveness of Multi Media Advertising and its Implications for Budget Allocation Decisions,” Journal of Advertising Research, 45(2).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Zhenfeng Ma (2005), “The Long-Run Effects of Leadtime and Competitive Rivalry on Brand Performance: The Case of the SUV Market,” in Finanza, Marketing e Produzione (publication of Bocconi University, Italy), 23(3).
Vakratsas, Demetrios (2005), “Advertising Response Models with Managerial Impact: An Agenda for the Future,” (with rejoinder) Applied Stochastic Models in Business and Industry, 21(4-5) (special issue on bridging the gap between practitioners and academics).
Vakratsas, Demetrios, Fred M. Feinberg, Frank M. Bass and Gurumurthy Kalyanaram (2004), “The Shape of Advertising Response Functions Revisited: A Model of Dynamic Probabilistic Thresholds,” Marketing Science, 23(1).
Theoharakis, Vasilis, Demetrios Vakratsas and Veronica Wong (2004) “The Relationship Between Market Share and Information in a High-Tech Industry,” Review of Marketing Science, 2(1).
Vakratsas, Demetrios, Ram C. Rao and Gurumurthy Kalyanaram (2003), “An Empirical Analysis of Follower Entry Timing Decisions,” Marketing Letters, 14 (3).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Frank M. Bass (2002), “The Relationship Between Purchase Regularity and Propensity to Accelerate,” Journal of Retailing, 78 (2).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Frank M. Bass (2002), “A Segment-Level Hazard Approach to Studying Household Purchase Timing Decisions,” Journal of Applied Econometrics, 17 (1).
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Tim Ambler (1999), “How Advertising Works: What Do We Really Know?” Journal of Marketing, 63 (1). 2004 AMA Marketing Communications SIG Best Paper Award for an article published five years ago in an AMA Journal
Vakratsas, Demetrios (1998), “Consumer Heterogeneity and the Shape of Purchase Rate Functions,” Applied Stochastic Models and Data Analysis, 14 (1).
Vakratsas, Demetrios (1998), “Household Costs Effects on Purchase Timing Decisions: Do Demographics Matter?” Journal of Consumer Marketing, 15 (1).
Ambler, Tim and Demetrios Vakratsas (1996), “The Pursuit of Advertising Theory,” Business Strategy Review, 7 (1).
Books and Edited Volumes
Chapters in Books
Vakratsas, Demetrios and Prasad Naik (2007), “Essentials of Planning Media Schedules,” in Handbook of Advertising, Tim Ambler and Gerard Tellis, eds., Sage Publications.
2009: Quebec Excellence in Teaching Chair
2006-2007: Nominated for Principal’s Prize for Excellence in Teaching by the Faculty of Management (Associate Professor Level).
2005-2006: McGill Management Undergraduate Society, Professor of the Year Award for excellence in teaching and contribution to student life.
2004-2005: Nominated for Principal’s Prize for Excellence in Teaching by the Faculty of Management (Assistant Professor Level).
2004: AMA Marketing Communications SIG Best Paper Award
1986, 1988-1989: National Scholar, Greek Scholarship Fund (“IKY”).
1995-1996 EU Marie Curie Fellow, London Business School
2012-2017 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Grant (sole investigator), “The impact of advertising creativity on consumer demand: A comprehensive investigation.”
2011-2014 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Grant (co- investigator with Ceren Kolsarici) “Dynamic Allocation of Multi-Media Advertising Budgets.”
2008-2011 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Grant (sole investigator) “New market entry decisions incorporating dynamic firm expectations of demand growth.” (grant proposal ranked 3rd overall)
2008-2011 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Grant (co- investigator with Saurabh Mishra)
2003-2007 Social Sciences and Humanities Research Council (SSHRC) of Canada Grant (sole investigator). “Investigating Statistical Learning Methods for Market Response Analysis.” (grant proposal ranked 6th overall)
2001-2004 FCAR (now FQRSC) grant (co-investigator) “Engineering pleasurable consumer experiences: Moving from the real to the virtual environment.”
MSI grant (co-investigators: Emine Sarigollu and Myung-Soo Jo) for the study of online first mover advantages.
Imagine, if you can, America’s most influential celebrity telling the world that she loves you and she loves your product.
And all of this, at the low price of next-to-nothing.
... All in all, David’s Tea “hit the jackpot,” marketing expert Demetrios Vakratsas concluded Friday.
For any company, especially one that relies on word-of-mouth advertising — rather than paid advertising in traditional media — Oprah’s endorsement “is a dream placement,” the McGill University, Desautels faculty of management professor, said.